Category: Weekly Market Commentary

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    Market Commentary: Things Are Bad, and That Could Be Good

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: Things Are Bad, and That Could Be Good

    Stocks had another rough week. The S&P 500 flirted with the June lows and swung back into bear market territory. Investors are worried about inflation, the Fed, the economy, the Russia-Ukraine war, among other market challenges.

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    Market Commentary: Wake Me Up When September Ends

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: Wake Me Up When September Ends

    The popular Green Day song titled “Wake Me Up When September Ends” feels quite appropriate given the recent market volatility. In fact, the S&P 500 has now dropped at least 3% for three of the past four weeks. As we’ve noted in this commentary, stocks tend to be quite volatile and potentially weak in September, and that is playing out once again in 2022.

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    Market Commentary: The Election is Near

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: The Election is Near

    It’s hard to believe, but we are less than two months away from midterm elections in early November. Given all the well-known worries this year — from inflation to the war in Ukraine, the economy to the bear market — most investors haven’t started to think about midterms quite yet. But we expect that to change as this important date nears.

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    What Year Is It?

    Market Commentary

    What Year Is It?

    It continues to be a challenging year for stocks, but all is not lost. We believe there could be some decisive gains before year-end. Let’s look back at two other midterm years that were similar to 2022 in more ways than one.

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    Market Commentary: The Worst Month of the Year Is Here

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: The Worst Month of the Year Is Here

    The S&P 500 recently soared more than 17% off its June 16 lows but found trouble near its 200-day moving average. This is perfectly normal, as stocks might need to catch their breath before the next move higher. That is the good news. The bad news is the calendar is doing no one any favors and more volatility could be in store.

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    Market Commentary: Fed’s Tone Remains Hawkish Despite Recent Gains. Will There Be More Rate Hikes?

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: Fed’s Tone Remains Hawkish Despite Recent Gains. Will There Be More Rate Hikes?

    As the Federal Reserve prepares to kick off its major monetary policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, its tone has become more hawkish. That is pressuring markets, which have rallied in recent weeks as inflation has dipped lower and economic data has remained healthy. The market’s rally suggested the Fed’s approach was working and investors began to expect rate increases may slow. However, those expectations were checked by the Fed’s comments Thursday that additional rate hikes will be needed to get inflation under control.

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    Market Commentary: Inflation Finally Falls Flat, Stocks Respond Positively

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: Inflation Finally Falls Flat, Stocks Respond Positively

    Inflation slowed significantly in July. Lower energy prices, including a 7.7% decline in gasoline prices, helped the Consumer Price Index stay flat. Food and shelter costs helped offset the decline in energy prices. The core inflation rate fell to 0.3%, suggesting inflationary pressures are present but moderating from previous months. Estimates for both data points were 0.2% higher than the actual data. The annual inflation rate remains elevated at 8.5%. Producer prices reflected a similar trend as the Producer Price Index fell 0.5% last month.

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    Market Commentary: U.S. Adds 528,000 New Jobs and Unemployment Reaches Pre-Pandemic Low

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: U.S. Adds 528,000 New Jobs and Unemployment Reaches Pre-Pandemic Low

    The U.S. job market didn’t get the message it was supposed to slow down. The establishment survey estimated 528,000 new jobs were created last month. Every employment sector experienced growth, although services and government hiring accounted for 87% of new jobs.

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    Market Commentary: As Anticipated, Fed Announces Another 0.75% Rate Hike

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: As Anticipated, Fed Announces Another 0.75% Rate Hike

    Last week was a big one for monetary policy and economic data. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 0.75%, with unanimous agreement that higher rates were required to bring inflation under control. In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced the Fed was becoming more data dependent. The market interpreted that statement to mean rate hikes would likely slow in the future, especially if inflation starts moving lower.

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    Market Commentary: European Central Bank Joins Fight Against Inflation, Raises Rates 0.5%

    Market Commentary

    Market Commentary: European Central Bank Joins Fight Against Inflation, Raises Rates 0.5%

    Central banks are playing the leading role in today’s markets. Last week, the European Central Bank raised interest rates 0.5%, pulling the deposit facility rate to 0%. It is the first interest rate increase in 11 years and the first time the rate hasn’t been negative in eight years. Japan’s central bank took a different approach, leaving rates stable. The Japanese Consumer Price Index has only risen 2.3% in the last year. That is much higher than normal but close to the target of 2%.

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